In a recent posting on VKLOGGER, I posted the graph below of licence trends to Jun 2013.
VK3HZ commented at Re: Amateur population trends – 2013:
I wonder who it really was who first said “Lies, damned lies and statistics”?
I’m surprised any conclusions can be reached based on the data presented:
– the last point on the graph totally influences the outcome. Take that point away and there’s quite a different (rising) trend line.
– Is this final point influenced by some other effects (e.g. changes or delays in license processing …)?
– why should a second-order polonomial be used to model number of licenses vs. time? Why does it have to have a turning point?
– the vertical axis is greatly expanded, over-emphasising visually any noise on the data
– if the same analysis had been done after the 2007 data had been released, the trend would be even more disastrous. However, reality was much different.So, I don’t (yet) believe the sky is falling.
I will respond here as I now refrain from posting on VKLOGGER. Continue reading A response to VK3HZ’s comment on amateur licence trends